Public Policy Polling has a really interesting poll up right now. It's a bunch what-if scenarios with various people running an independent or third party campaign in the general election. It looks like Democrats would be in total lock step for Obama, with few exceptions, while the GOP looks ready to split in two. Ron Paul would get 15% in a three way race with Obama and Romney, which is pretty impressive, considering that's without any full campaign to sort things out. I'd say 15% is a great starting point.
Still, I sincerely doubt Paul would go third party or independent, for two major reasons. He already tried once for the Libertarian Party, and it was a very tough road to hoe. Also, the GOP would be pissed if he split the vote like that, barring some amazing thing in which he was able to siphon a ton of liberal votes, or get basically all the independents and win, or if the Republicans realized his fans were not going to give in and voted for him to avoid Obama getting another term. I actually think that could be a good campaign slogan: "A vote for Romney (or whomever) is a vote for Obama." But still, if the GOP got their Ron Paul hate on even more, he's sabotage his son Rand's potential 2016 or 2020 run, which I think is a sure bet. So, a fun fantasy, but probably not going to happen.
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